For decades, classical computers have powered everything from spreadsheets to space exploration, all built on a simple foundation. But as our world becomes more complex and our appetite for faster, smarter solutions grows, we’re beginning to reach the limits of what traditional computing can achieve. Enter quantum computing: a fundamentally different way to process information.
So why the attention? Quantum computing is not a faster version of what we have now. It is a different kind of machine, capable of solving a narrow but important class of problems that classical computers cannot. Drug discovery, materials science and logistics all stand to benefit. So does anyone trying to break the encryption that protects the rest of us.
In this blog, we’ll break down the fundamentals and explore what quantum computing really means (and why it matters) for businesses and beyond, understanding the shift from bits to qubits.
A New Foundation for Computing
Since the first digital computers emerged in the mid-20th century, the underlying architecture of computing has remained remarkably consistent. At their core, systems rely on CPUs to process data, RAM to handle short-term memory, and storage drives to hold information long-term. While performance has improved dramatically with faster processors, greater memory capacity and ever-expanding storage, the fundamental design has stayed the same. A modern laptop may be vastly more powerful than a 1970s machine like the Commodore PET, but both operate on the same basic principles.
Quantum computing represents a radical departure from this model. Rather than relying on traditional bits and classical processors, it introduces qubits and quantum processing units (QPUs), forming an entirely new computational framework. Redefining how information is represented and processed.
In classical computing, data is stored as binary bits, each fixed as either a 0 or a 1. Quantum computing, however, draws on the principles of quantum mechanics. A qubit can exist in a range of states between 0 and 1, and crucially, it can occupy multiple states simultaneously, an effect known as superposition. This allows quantum systems to handle vast combinations of possibilities at once, dramatically increasing their potential processing power.
But this capability comes with trade-offs. Quantum computers are not designed to replace traditional machines for everyday tasks. In fact, the way we currently use software from word processors to web browsers is fundamentally incompatible with quantum systems. Instead, their strength lies in tackling highly complex, specialised problems, such as optimising logistics networks or analysing large numerical patterns. In these areas, quantum computing doesn’t just improve performance it opens entirely new possibilities.
Quantum Computing and the Future of Cyber Security
One of the areas where quantum computers could have the biggest impact is cryptography, the technology that keeps our data secure. A key example is a process known as semiprime factorisation. In simple terms, this involves determining which two prime numbers multiply together to form a larger number. While this is easy with small numbers, like calculating that 14 equals 2 × 7, it becomes incredibly difficult as the numbers grow larger.
This mathematical challenge underpins widely used encryption methods such as RSA, which secures much of today’s internet traffic, communications and stored data. RSA works by generating a large number from two prime numbers and using that as part of an encryption key. For classical computers, reversing this process (working out the original prime factors) is so time-consuming that it keeps data effectively safe.
Quantum computers, however, could change that. With their ability to process complex calculations far more efficiently, they have the potential to break RSA encryption by quickly identifying those underlying prime numbers. If that capability becomes practical at scale, it could allow attackers to decrypt sensitive information from private messages to financial data, undermining the very foundations of digital security.
The implications extend beyond traditional internet security. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin rely on similar cryptographic techniques, like ECDSA, to secure transactions and ownership. In a quantum-enabled scenario, these protections could be compromised, potentially allowing bad actors to forge signatures or access digital assets.
That said, it’s important to keep this risk in perspective. Not all encryption methods are vulnerable to quantum attacks. Standards such as AES (Advanced Encryption Standard) and many hashing algorithms remain resilient, even in the face of quantum advancements. As a result, the cyber security sector isn’t facing total disruption, but it is progressing, with a growing focus on developing quantum-resistant encryption to safeguard the future.
The Timeline for Quantum Risk
While the potential impact of quantum computing on security can sound alarming, the reality is far less immediate. Today’s quantum computers are still in their early stages of development. Much like classical computers took decades to evolve into the powerful systems we rely on today, quantum technology is still maturing.
At present, qubits, the building blocks of quantum systems are highly fragile. They remain stable for only tiny fractions of a second, and current machines don’t yet have enough qubits, or the reliability, to tackle problems at a scale that would threaten global infrastructure. In short, the risk is real but it’s not imminent. Most experts agree that practical, large-scale quantum computers capable of breaking widely used encryption are still years, if not decades away.
So why the growing urgency? The answer lies in a concept known as “Store Now, Decrypt Later” (SNDL). Even without access to a quantum computer today, attackers can begin collecting and storing encrypted data now. Once quantum capabilities become available, that archived data could be decrypted retroactively.
This is particularly concerning for information with long-term value. Sensitive data such as government records, intellectual property, financial information, or strategic communications may remain relevant and valuable well into the future. If intercepted today, it could be exposed years down the line.
For this reason, organisations aren’t just preparing for a future threat, they’re actively adapting now. The shift towards quantum-resistant encryption isn’t about reacting to current capabilities but about staying ahead of what’s coming.
Preparing for a Quantum-Secure Future
Organisations are not waiting. Post-quantum cryptography is moving from research papers into production systems, and the algorithms that will replace today’s standards have already been named.
The two that matter most are ML-KEM (Module-Lattice Key Encapsulation Mechanism) for encryption and ML-DSA (Module-Lattice Digital Signature Algorithm) for digital signatures, both standardised by NIST in 2024. They are designed to replace RSA and ECDSA, the algorithms that secure most of the internet today and that a sufficiently large quantum computer would break. The trade-offs are real: larger keys, more compute, more bandwidth. They are also acceptable and getting more so as hardware catches up.
Intercede aims to support fully quantum-resistant credential issuance across the MyID suite by 2027. In practice that means MyID CMS issuing PIV and smart card credentials signed with ML-DSA, MyID SecureVault generating and storing quantum-safe keys in HSM-backed vaults, and the underlying PKI integrations updated to handle the new algorithms end to end. For customers in defence, government and finance, where credentials issued today need to remain trustworthy for ten or twenty years, that timeline matters.
Looking Ahead: From Possibility to Reality
Quantum computing is not science fiction and it is not next decade’s problem. The standards exist. The algorithms are named. NIST has finalised them. The question for any organisation issuing long-lived credentials today is no longer whether to plan for post-quantum, but how quickly the plan can be executed.
That is the honest framing. Quantum computers will not replace the laptop on your desk or the servers in your data centre. They will sit alongside them, doing a specific job very well. But the cryptographic implications are real, and the SNDL problem means the clock started some time ago for any data with a shelf life beyond five years.
Intercede aims for 2027 to deliver full quantum-resistant credential issuance across the MyID suite. For the agencies, banks and defence programmes that have trusted MyID with their highest-assurance credentials for two decades, that timeline is the point. Credentials issued in 2027 will still be in use in 2037. They need to hold.
Book a demo to see how MyID is preparing customers for post-quantum credential management today.